CYRIACUS IZUEKWE
Anambra State, long regarded as the spiritual home of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), is witnessing the biggest shift in its voting pattern in over two decades.
For years, the formula was simple: Anambra is APGA, and APGA is Anambra. From Peter Obi to Willie Obiano to Chukwuma Soludo, the party produced every governor since 2006. Voters followed the party logo, not just the man.
That era is now cracking, and Governor Chukwuma Soludo himself is the one breaking it.
With his declaration that APGA will support President Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) for President in 2027, while APGA keeps its candidates for Senate, House of Representatives and State Assembly, Soludo has told Anambra voters to do what they have never been officially asked to do: split their votes.
His formula is now famous across the state: “Tinubu for President, APGA for Senate, House of Reps and State Assembly.”
Soludo’s message is clear: vote for the individual, not the party.
Speaking through his Chief Press Secretary, Christian Aburime, and at the inauguration of the Tinubu Campaign Council in Awka on November 1, Soludo declared: “2023 is gone. 2027 is not going to be 2023.”
He framed the 2027 election as a battle between emotion and reason. Emotion, he said, is voting for Peter Obi because he is an Igbo brother. Reason, he argued, is voting for Tinubu because he is the incumbent, controls federal resources, and can reward Anambra with projects.
Soludo reminded voters that Tinubu won in 2023 despite getting only 5,111 votes in Anambra, while Obi got 584,621 votes and won all 21 local government areas. His argument: “We must not throw away our votes again.”
It is a direct challenge to the old Anambra political culture where party identity decided everything.
Ironically, Anambra voters already proved in 2023 that they can vote for individuals over party.
In that election, Soludo was governor on APGA platform, yet Anambra gave Obi of the Labour Party a landslide. They voted APGA for governor in 2021, but Labour for President in 2023. They separated the ballot.
Soludo is now trying to use that same independent spirit, but in reverse: vote APC at the top, APGA below.
Political analysts say this is the real test. Can Anambra voters be taught to split their ballot on instruction, or will they split it on anger?
Not everyone in APGA is comfortable.
Several APGA National Assembly candidates, speaking on condition of anonymity, have told national media they fear protest votes. They fear that voters angry at Soludo for abandoning Obi, now the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), will punish APGA candidates by voting NDC straight down the ballot.
One House of Reps candidate in Awka said: “There is a possibility that APGA candidates might all lose, even the good candidates among us. The voters are not happy that the governor is aligning with the APC while their own person, Peter Obi, is also on the ballot.”
Campaigns in parts of Awka, Onitsha and Nnewi have reportedly slowed down because candidates do not know how to explain the alliance to their supporters.
On the other side, APC members in Anambra are also angry. They ask: Why should we campaign for Tinubu and then vote APGA for Senate? They want straight-ticket APC voting. APGA chairman, Ifeatu Obi-Okoye, has insisted there is no alliance beyond the presidential election.
The result is confusion on both sides.
What is emerging in Anambra is a new kind of voter.
The first is the Performance Voter. He does not care about APGA or APC. He asks: Who built my road? Who gave my community light? Soludo is betting this voter will reward Tinubu’s federal projects.
The second is the Identity Voter. She still sees Obi as “our son” and sees Soludo’s romance with APC as betrayal. She is ready to vote NDC to send a message.
The third is the Strategic Voter. He agrees with Soludo that Ndigbo cannot win the presidency alone and must build alliances. He is willing to try the Tinubu gamble.
The fourth is the Protest Voter. He may not love any candidate, but he will use his ballot to punish Soludo for telling Anambra what to do.
On January 16, 2027, when voters will be given three separate ballot papers for President, Senate and House of Reps, all four types will meet at the polling unit.
Soludo’s calculation is rooted in history. APGA did it in 2011 when it adopted Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP as its presidential candidate while keeping its own state candidates. The party survived.
He also points to the appointment of APGA chieftain Bianca Ojukwu as Minister in Tinubu’s cabinet as proof that the “Progressives are working together” is not just a slogan.
But critics argue 2027 is different. In 2011, there was no Peter Obi on the ballot as a presidential candidate from Anambra. In 2027, there is.
Obi himself has refused to attack Soludo personally, saying governors have the right to support whoever they choose. His supporters, however, see Soludo’s move as personal, not strategic.
Whether Soludo succeeds or fails, one thing is now clear in Anambra: party loyalty alone can no longer win elections.
The APGA-APC romance has forced voters to think, to choose, to split, and to punish. It has turned Anambra from a one-party state into a battleground of individuals.
If Tinubu gets a significant increase from his 5,111 votes in 2023, Soludo will claim vindication. If APGA loses its National Assembly seats to NDC in protest, Soludo will be blamed for destroying the house Ojukwu built.
Either way, Anambra will never vote the same way again.