ThinkBusiness Africa Challenges CAPPA’s SSB Tax Proposals With Data-Driven Counter-Report

In a timely and rigorous intervention on Nigeria’s public health and fiscal policy debate, ThinkBusiness Africa has released a counter-report titled “Evaluating Nigeria’s Sugar-Sweetened Beverage (SSB) Tax: A Critical Review of CAPPA’s Policy Proposals.”

The report, unveiled today at a media parley in Lagos, directly challenges the findings and recommendations made by the Corporate Accountability and Public Participation Africa (CAPPA) in its recently published report “Junk on Our Plates.”

At the event, Dr. Ogho Okiti, CEO of ThinkBusiness Africa, addressed journalists and stakeholders from across the economic and health policy ecosystem, stating that while CAPPA’s proposed 1,200% increase in the SSB tax from ₦10 to ₦130 per litre, is unjustified, poorly evidenced, and economically risky.

He stressed that the CAPPA report relies on outdated and selectively applied data, reaching conclusions that do not hold up to rigorous analysis.

For example, while citing the rising prevalence of obesity among urban women, CAPPA’s own field data shows higher SSB consumption among adolescent males aged 15–19, a contradiction that undermines the policy rationale for such a drastic tax increase.

Dr. Okiti highlighted that Nigeria’s per capita sugar consumption, at 6.9kg per year, remains one of the lowest in the West African sub-region.

He questioned how a tax originally implemented as a ₦10-per-litre levy in 2022, with no publicly disclosed performance data to date, could be considered a failure, let alone one that warrants such a steep hike.

According to him, recommending new taxes without evaluating existing ones amounts to fiscal adventurism, not policy leadership.

He also drew attention to the severe economic risks such a move would present.

With beverage companies already facing an effective tax burden of up to 45 percent including corporate income tax, value-added tax, and education levies, raising the SSB tax further could push many small and medium enterprises to the brink, erode competitiveness, and increase unemployment.

Dr. Okiti argued that the beverage sector is a significant employer and contributor to government revenue, and destabilising it would have ripple effects across supply chains, distribution networks, and informal retail.

Rather than endorsing excessive taxation as the silver bullet for public health, ThinkBusiness Africa’s report calls for a more comprehensive and evidence-based approach.

It recommends strengthening enforcement of existing NAFDAC regulations on labelling and trans fats, expanding nutrition education in schools, promoting physical activity, and cracking down on misleading advertising.

It also suggests that Nigeria commission a Total Dietary Intake Study to properly understand national consumption patterns and calls for the institution of Regulatory Impact Assessments before introducing any new tax policy.

During the question and answer session with the media, Dr. Okiti addressed a range of questions on industry lobbying, public health priorities, and the risk of appearing to defend corporate interests.

His response was firm: “We’re not defending any sector; we are defending the integrity of policymaking. When data is weak, and assumptions are misaligned with national realities, we have a duty to speak up. Nigeria’s health challenges are real, but so are its economic vulnerabilities. We need a path that balances both.”

He closed the session by calling on government, civil society, academia, and the private sector to embrace a more collaborative, transparent, and context-specific approach to public health reform.

“We should not import policy models wholesale from advanced economies without assessing their local relevance. We must tailor our strategies to Nigeria’s realities because what works in Oslo or Ottawa may not work in Owerri.”

Today’s report launch reinforces ThinkBusiness Africa’s position as one of the country’s leading voices in development economics and data-driven policy advisory.

It signals a shift in the narrative away from reactionary policy and toward a more deliberate, inclusive, and evidence-based framework for addressing both health and economic challenges.