Whose Report Shall We Believe On The Nigerian Economy?

BY ‎DAPO OKUBANJO

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‎There has been a lot of public commentaries on the state of the Nigerian economy in the last 28 months, from the sublime to the outrightly ridiculous. 

‎Indeed almost as soon as President Bola Tinubu assumed office in May 29 2023 and made his “subsidy is gone” announcement, it looked like all hell was let loose in the aftermath of the decision.

‎Presidential candidates who described fuel subsidy as “criminality” on the campaign trail and vowed to stop it “immediately” suddenly became the lead choristers of the public recriminations.

‎It was at a time that prices of goods and services literally went through the roof in reaction to the inevitable rise in fuel price and things became tougher for the average Nigerian, and not surprisingly, we began to hear words like ‘hunger in the land’. And trust politicians, they swooped in to capitalize on the public outrage.

‎But any unbiased and well-read Nigerian should have known that the cost-of-living crisis was an expected reaction to the shock therapy of removing a scheme that had been institutionalized in the country for decades.

‎Ironically, some of the opposition figures who were leading the charge against the President and his reforms were also praising another President in a different clime, Javier Milei, who was experimenting with tougher reforms in Argentina.

‎Now, twenty eight months down the line, those politicians are still holding on to their position. They are refusing to acknowledge what sovereign credit rating agencies, international bodies like the World Bank, as well as global investors and renowned economists have been saying, all in the name of politics.

‎Few months ago, the Director General of the World Trade Organization (WTO), Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala was in Nigeria and after a courtesy call on the President told the media that the Tinubu administration “has to be given the credit for the stability of the economy”.

She added that President Tinubu’s economic reforms “have delivered much-needed stability” and “have been in the right direction”.

‎But what we saw from naysayers in the political space was a rat race to interpret what the notable economist said, in a bid to water down comments that put a lie to what they have been putting in the media space.

‎Only recently, Mr Adebayo Ogunlesi, the founder of Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) and a leading executive of Blackrock, a global investment firm with assets in excess of $12 trillion across the world, expressed the willingness of his company to extend its footprints to Nigeria.

‎Speaking after his latest meeting with President Tinubu, Ogunlesi was emphatic that Nigeria is now an exciting place to be for investors, adding that Blackrock would be interested in investing in energy (LNG plants) and the aviation sector as well as in the ports especially as one of his companies has investments in ports in Benin and Togo, but none in Nigeria.

‎It should be of interest to Nigerians that Ogunlesi pointed out that his investment plans were fired by the series of Tinubu reforms including the removal of fuel subsidy, a liberalised foreign exchange market and the overhaul of outdated tax laws, which according to him have resulted in “fundamental transformation” of the economy.

‎So when President Tinubu said in his Independence Day broadcast that the worst was over after 28 months of stabilizing the economy, this was the point he was making.

‎Conversely, there are people in the public space who insist that the same reforms are a disincentive for investments and investors, and a blight on economic growth. One of them, Peter Obi, a former Presidential candidate who is angling for another shot at the Presidency, painted a bleak picture of the economy that was clearly at odds with that of Adebayo Ogunlesi.

‎This now takes us to the title of this piece, “whose report on the economy shall we believe?” As much as it looks and sounds like a rhetorical question, it is clearly food for thought for Nigerians.

‎Would our people believe a global investment icon with a track record who is keen on putting funds into the economy or a politician who has opted for selling gloom and despair as a political strategy?

‎It is actually easy to see when politicians, especially those in the opposition play politics, so the onus is on Nigerians to call them out for who they are.

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‎ Okubanjo, a journalist and public affairs analyst, writes from Abuja via dokubanjo@yahoo.co.uk