Osun 2026 Election: The Oyebamiji Challenge

BY DAPO OKUBANJO

It is easy for a casual observer of Osun state politics to assume that the incumbent governor, Ademola Adeleke, would easily coast to a second term in office. Not necessarily because of a sterling performance in office but because of a popularity that stems from extraneous factors outside of governance.

He may have had a slightly difficult ride to office when he defeated the then incumbent governor Adegboyega Oyetola in the July 16, 2022 election by securing 403,371 votes to Oyetola’s 375,027 and winning of the 30 local government areas.

Adeleke’s victory margin of 28,344 votes was razor thin but was enough to defeat a governor who incidentally did better than his predecessor, Rauf Aregbesola in paying workers salaries, keeping the state’s solvent while also ensuring debt repayment.

But it seems like Osun electorates simply wanted a change, for the sake of it, and they got their wish.

Now that he is completing his first term, the governor faces a stiffer challenge in Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji, a public finance expert with nearly 30 years of experience spread across the public and private sectors.

Popularly known as AMBO, Oyebamiji is not new, either in governance or politics of Osun State. As a two-term commisioner of finance, he was credited with the feat of increasing Osun’s Internally Generated Revenue (IRS) from N6 billion to N26 billion as at 2022. And although the Adeleke administration has since grown it to about N54 billion, it is obvious that Oyebamiji did the heavy lifting that paved way for improved IGR.

Now looking through his seven-point manifesto tagged ‘PROSPER’ which outlined his policy direction and development agenda, it looks like Osun state is set for a period of prosperity especially as the state ,like the others in the federation, now has access to improved allocation from the federation account, courtesy of the President Bola Tinubu administration.

Oyebamiji has left no doubt about his readiness to make life better for the people of Osun with an agenda, he insists, are aimed at driving economic growth, improving infrastructure and enhancing the welfare of residents across the state.

As a public finance expert that he is, he has explained that his ‘PROSPER’ agenda stands for Poverty alleviation through good welfare and job creation; Responsive governance; Opportunities for economic growth; Security, Productive Agriculture; Education and healthcare delivery and Renewed investment in infrastructure.

Oyebamiji noted that his vision for the state was to ensure a more prosperous, inclusive and resilient state as he is ready to deliver transparent governance, make sure communities are secure, and every citizen gets the needed support to succeed.

While launching his well thought out manifesto which is said to be based on a needs assessment survey, Oyebamiji said, ”We will implement targeted social intervention programmes to reduce poverty and support vulnerable citizens. We will prioritise workers’ welfare by  ensuring prompt payment of salary, drive job creation through public works programmes, enterprise support and strategic investments, among others.”

A further breakdown of the Oyebamiji agenda for workers shows a readiness to settle outstanding entitlement and clear pension backlogs, to implement a transparent and merit-based evaluation promotion system, and to institutionalize a sustainable pension scheme for all segments of workers.

It is therefore not surprising that Osun workers are already bracing up to support his governorship bid as seen from the May Day declaration by a group under the aegis of the Association of Concerned Local Workers.

The interesting thing about these electoral promises is that Ambo has a public sector background in the state that anyone could use to judge what he is offering. He did not just storm on the scene. He has a record of performance in all the offices he has held.

It was on his watch as the Managing Director of Osun State Investment Company Limited, that his capacity and competence first became manifest.

He did not just revive that company, he took OSICOL shareholders’ fund from N300million negative to about N6 billion before he left to become Commissioner of Finance.

It was a period where Osun state first ventured into the oil and gas, housing and hospitality sector in order to expand a revenue base that the incumbent government is now leveraging on as a campaign tool.

Before he left office, the state could boast of having housing estates in Lagos and Abuja. These are verifiable facts.

But a concerned Adeleke administration has been pushing back against Oyebamiji’s action plan, describing it as a “warped plan incompatible with the needs and aspirations of Osun people”.

It also insisted that the APC gubernatorial candidate could not be absolved of blame from some of the rot the administration claimed it had been fixing since assuming office in 2022.

For instance, Governor Adeleke mocked Oyebamiji’s position on a structured finance while asking why he did not use same plan to pay the “30-month half salary arrears, when he was a commissioner of finance especially as state debt increased between 2017 and 2022.”

But truth be told, the state of Osun’s finance up till the initial part of Governor Adeleke’s first term in office was not as good as it is now in the aftermath of the ongoing economic reforms of the President Bola Tinubu administration.

This has made it easier for the sub-nationals to have enough funds to the extent that only a few states now resort to domestic and external borrowings while majority of state governors have been easily paying off the debts they inherited from the predecessors.

So the credit for Governor Adeleke and others significantly reducing their debt profile, in the case of Osun from N148.37 billion in December 2022 to N83.32 billion in Q1 2025 (a 43.84% reduction) should clearly go to the federal government.

That Osun state government is repaying inherited debts without taking new commercial loans has nothing to do with any form of financial reengineering. It is simply because states now have more than twice the allocations they were getting from the federation account prior to the Tinubu administration.

And like the Oyebamiji camp is insisting, this is not something to be used as a campaign tool. They say that with the kind of funds at the disposal of Osun state now, courtesy of the Tinubu reforms, no one is better placed than a man with extensive background in public finance to properly make good use of it for the benefit of the people.

In all of these, one thing is obvious from the ongoing political hustings in Osun state, Bola Oyebamiji is posing a big challenge to Governor Adeleke’s bid for a second term in office.

–Dapo Okubanjo, a media strategist, writes from Abuja