The Primaries Before The Election: How Nigerian Parties Have Already Shown Us 2027

Across political parties, the primaries produced figures, scenes and complaints that should worry every serious Nigerian. We saw alleged rigging, manipulation, hijacking, exclusion of aspirants, questionable accreditation, magical counting, strange vote figures and the familiar arrogance of party power brokers who behave as if political parties are private estates.

The tragedy is not only that these things happened. The bigger tragedy is that many Nigerians are already moving on as if nothing serious occurred.

*Let us look at the numbers.*

In the 2023 general election, our dear president, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, won with 8,794,726 votes from the Nigerian voting public. Atiku Abubakar scored 6,984,520 votes. Peter Obi scored 6,101,533 votes. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso scored 1,496,687 votes. Omoyele Sowore scored 14,608 votes.

INEC’s register for the 2023 election had 93,469,008 registered voters nationwide. Out of that figure, only 25,286,616 voters were accredited, while the total valid votes recorded stood at 24,025,940 and the total votes cast were 24,965,218.

*Now fast-forward to the 2027 party primaries.*

My own party, the APC, reportedly declared that President Tinubu secured over 10.9 million votes from APC members alone in its direct primary election. In simple English, our dear president allegedly received more votes from APC members during a party primary than he received from the entire Nigerian voting public in the 2023 presidential election.

*That should concern everyone,

 including APC members themselves.*

How can a candidate score 8.79 million votes when the entire country voted in a general election, yet suddenly score over 10.9 million votes from only party members in a primary election? Are we saying APC members alone who participated in the primary are more than the total Nigerians who voted for Tinubu in the general election? If so, where is the verified membership register? Where is the transparent accreditation record? Where are the ward-by-ward auditable figures?

The issue is not whether APC is large. APC is undoubtedly one of the biggest political parties in Africa. The issue is whether the figures make statistical, electoral and procedural sense.

A political party cannot continue to operate on figures that cannot be independently verified. Party membership is not a spiritual exercise. It must be documented, audited and tied to real human beings. The register of party members is a public political record that should be available for scrutiny when such extraordinary figures are announced.

*The ADC primary also raised serious questions.*

Atiku Abubakar reportedly polled over 1.8 million votes, while Rotimi Amaechi and other contenders trailed behind. Immediately after the exercise, Amaechi publicly rejected the outcome and alleged widespread disenfranchisement, manipulation and exclusion.

That allegation is significant because it came from a man who was not only a former governor but also a former Minister of Transportation and one of the most powerful politicians in the country.

*What then should ordinary aspirants without Abuja connections expect?*

Across the country, numerous senatorial, House of Representatives and governorship aspirants complained of manipulation, exclusion and pre-determined outcomes.

Several APC senatorial aspirants, including Daniel Asuquo in Cross River South, Oden Ewa in Cross River Central, Ben Murray-Bruce in Bayelsa East and Tein Jack-Rich in Rivers West reportedly faced disqualification or exclusion controversies.

In many states, governorship primaries also produced figures that left observers shocked.

Some candidates were declared winners with margins so outrageous that they raised questions about whether actual voting genuinely took place or whether results had simply been written beforehand. In some states, candidates were announced to have secured virtually all accredited votes, while opponents who had visibly campaigned and maintained structures across local governments were returned with figures that looked politically impossible.

The pattern was disturbingly familiar.

The counting was often magical.

The figures were often astronomical.

The margins were often unbelievable.

And yet, many party leaders and favoured Aspirants, including Mr. Peter Obi, whose party Aspirants such as Actor Emeka Ike, Aisha Yesufu, amongst others who reported widespread rigging and manipulations against them, have moved on as though everything was normal.

Perhaps the most ironic part is that many of the same political parties and politicians that have spent years advocating electronic transmission of results, electronic voting, BVAS enforcement, transparent collation and credible elections have suddenly become comfortable with deeply questionable primaries simply because the outcomes favoured them.

That is the hypocrisy at the heart of Nigerian politics.

When manipulation favours them, they call it democracy.

When manipulation hurts them, they call it rigging.

Many of those currently celebrating these primary results should remember this moment when the 2027 general election arrives.

They should not complain.

They should not raise alarms.

They should not rush to court.

They should not organise press conferences.

Because if they have accepted questionable primaries today simply because they benefited, they have surrendered the moral right to protest questionable general election results tomorrow.

Democracy cannot survive on convenience.

You cannot condemn electoral fraud in February and celebrate electoral fraud in May.

You cannot reject written results at a national collation centre and accept written results inside your own party secretariat.

This is why I am 100 percent convinced that Nigerians should not expect anything significantly better in the 2027 general elections than what we have already witnessed during these primaries.

The primaries are the rehearsal.

The general election will simply be the main performance.

*INEC must also bear part of the responsibility.*

INEC monitored these exercises.

INEC witnessed these processes.

INEC understands that candidate nomination is the foundation of every election.

A compromised primary produces a compromised ballot.

While political parties remain responsible for their internal democracy, INEC cannot continue to watch questionable exercises and behave as though it is powerless.

*The leadership of the parties must also take responsibility.*

Too many party leaders now act as owners of political parties rather than custodians of democracy.

Aspirants are encouraged to purchase forms, invest resources, mobilise supporters and campaign across constituencies, only to discover later that the outcome may have been determined elsewhere.

*But ordinary Nigerians are not innocent.*

Many Nigerians have willingly made themselves tools in the destruction of the same democracy they claim to desire.

Some queue multiple times.

Some defend obvious irregularities because their preferred candidate benefited.

Some participate in exclusion.

Some celebrate manipulation when it favours their ethnic, regional or political interests.

That is why Nigeria’s electoral crisis is bigger than INEC.

It is bigger than APC.

It is bigger than PDP, ADC, Labour Party, NNPP, AAC or SDP.

It is a national character problem.

We want credible elections, but many of us support incredible processes whenever our side benefits.

We want justice, but only when our opponents are victims.

We want reform, but not when reform threatens our immediate political interests.

The warning signs are already here.

If Nigerians are comfortable with these primaries and choose to remain silent, they should not cry when the 2027 general election becomes even worse.

If aspirants can be disenfranchised today, voters can be disenfranchised tomorrow.

If figures can be manufactured internally today, figures can be manufactured nationally tomorrow.

If political parties can announce vote totals that raise serious questions about membership size and voter authenticity, then nobody should pretend to be shocked when similar controversies emerge during the general election.

The 2027 elections have already started teaching Nigerians a lesson.

The political class has learned nothing.

The parties have learned nothing.

INEC has not done enough.

And sadly, many ordinary Nigerians are still helping to destroy the same democracy they claim to want.

What we have just witnessed is not merely a primary election season.

It is a preview.

It is a warning.

It is an exposé.

And unless Nigerians begin demanding genuine internal party democracy now, 2027 may produce a national election whose controversies will make these primaries look like a joke!