Adelabu As Oyo APC Guber Flag Bearer: A Recurring Nightmare for PDP

BY GANI KAYODE BALOGUN (GKB)

As the countdown to the 2027 general elections accelerates, political temperatures in Oyo State are rising with remarkable enthusiasm. Alignments are quietly taking shape, strategic calculators are working overtime, and political actors are rehearsing their best “confidence speeches” in private.

At the heart of these manoeuvres lies the possible emergence of Adebayo Adelabu as governorship flag bearer of the All Progressives Congress (APC). For the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), this is not merely another electoral contest—it is a scenario that consistently induces visible discomfort.

One cannot forget the dramatic lamentations from the PDP camp barely a year ago, when rumours suggested that Abuja might be leaning towards Adelabu. These whispers were quickly branded “imposition,” accompanied by emotional press statements and social media outrage. Curiously, in politics, one would expect opponents to celebrate the emergence of a “supposedly weak” rival. But in this case, the PDP’s reaction suggested otherwise. Apparently, Adelabu is not the kind of candidate one casually looks forward to contesting against.

More recently, another rumour surfaced—that Adelabu had been “dropped” for another aspirant. The jubilation from PDP circles was swift and spectacular, as though a major trophy had been won without playing the match, just as they did before the 2023 general elections when Adelabu was schemed out of the contest for APC ticket. That celebration, perhaps unintentionally, confirmed one thing: the fear is real, persistent, and deeply rooted.

Historical Context: Lessons from 2019

Since 2019, the PDP has governed Oyo State under Seyi Makinde. While incumbency offers advantages, Oyo’s political history shows that power is rarely sustained by incumbency alone. Personality, structure, legacy, and coalition-building still matter.

The 2019 election remains instructive. Adelabu, then APC candidate, lost by about 100,000 votes despite facing a formidable coalition that included the current revered Olubadan of Ibadanland, Oba Rashidi Ladoja; Sarafadeen Alli; Femi Lanlehin; Hosea Agboola (Halleluyah), and Governor Seyi Makinde himself.

This was at a time when the APC was severely fractured, weakened by internal disputes and defections by the Unity faction of the party to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and some to the PDP after the party congress and guber primaries. Yet, despite these structural handicaps and open anti-party activities, Adelabu remained competitive across major voting blocs. Many observers interpreted the margin of defeat not as weakness, but as evidence of political resilience.

The 2023 Interlude and Renewed Anxiety

By 2023, Adelabu was widely perceived as the candidate to beat. Political tension around his ambition was unmistakable. As expected in competitive politics, intense scheming followed. When he was schemed out of the party and eventually found accommodation in the Accord Party, PDP leaders quietly exhaled in relief. But the relief proved temporary.

Today, the political tide is shifting again. Several allies of the governor, including Hosea Agboola and Raphael Afonja, have migrated to the APC. Meanwhile, the once-divided party is now largely united, focused, and strategically aligned —no longer the fragmented structure of 2019. Almost all that supported Makinde coalition in 2019 are now back in the progressive fold.

Professional Pedigree and National Confidence

Beyond politics, Adelabu’s résumé distinguishes him in a field often dominated by career politicians. A first-class graduate, a fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (ICAN), the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) and an Associate of the Institute of Directors of Nigeria and the UK. This is in addition to his executive education exposure at World class business schools including, the Harvard, Stanford, Warton, Kellogs (all in the USA) and the University of London Business School and the Euromoney Executive Education (both in the UK).

He rose through World class accounting and consulting firm, PricewaterhouseCoopers, and a Universal Multi-National Financial Conglomerate, Standard Chartered Bank and later held executive responsibilities as Executive Director, Group Chief Financial Officer and Board member at Nigeria’s largest Bank, First Bank of Nigeria.

His appointment as Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria in 2014 under Goodluck Jonathan reflected national confidence in his technocratic capacity supretending over Financial Systems Stability, Corporate Services and Operations Directorates of the Apex Bank at different times.

Adelabu also served as the Chairman, Board of Directors of the Nigeria InterBank Settlement Systems (NIBBS) and the board of Financial Institution Training Centre (FITC). He was also an active member of the Board of Federal Inland Revenue Services (FIRS), Nigeria Security Printing and Minting Company (NSPMC), the Assets Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON) and the Nigeria Incentive-Based Risk-Sharing System for Agricultural Lending (NIRSAL).

This confidence was reaffirmed when Muhammadu Buhari conferred on him a national honour, Officer of the Order of the Federal Republic (OFR) in 2021. The former Oyo state governor, late Senator Abiola Ajimobi also found him worthy to serve as the Pioneer Chairman of the Oyo State Security Trust Fund between 2016 and 2019.

Currently, as Minister of Power under Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Adelabu manages one of the country’s most complex portfolios, boldly implementing landmark and transformative reforms across key segments of the Power sector value chain achieving unprecedented vibrancy in the sector. Few public figures enjoy such cross-administration trust. Fewer still maintain it.

Legacy, Roots, and Street Credibility

Adelabu’s political narrative is also historically grounded. As the grandson of Adegoke Adelabu —the legendary “Penkelemesi”— he inherits a legacy associated with Ibadan’s political awakening. In Oyo politics, history is not decoration; it is currency.

Beyond public office, his investments in hospitality, real estates, and agriculture have generated employment and strengthened his local presence.

Beyond commercial establishments, Adelabu actively engages in philanthropy and youth mentoring activities through the Bayo Adelabu Foundation (BAF). His initiatives focus on empowering traders, artisans, farmers, students, and widows. He frequently supports orphanage and disability homes, providing welfare contributions on a regular basis.

Supporters often emphasise his accessibility —his ability to relate naturally with traders, artisans, and grassroots communities. It was in consideration of all these that Olubadan of Ibadan, Oba Odugade Odulana conferred on him, the chieftaincy title of Agbaakin Parakoyi of Ibadanland in the year 2012 while the Central Council of Ibadan Indigenes also conferred on him the “Most Distinguished Ibadan Indigene” in the year 2010. This blend of elite competence and everyday familiarity has earned him what many describe as “street credibility.”

The Politics of Fear and Counter-Narratives

As 2027 approaches, political engagement is predictably shifting from policy debates to image management. Strong contenders inevitably attract coordinated campaigns aimed at questioning character and credibility. Adelabu has not been spared.

Ironically, such persistent scrutiny often signals strength rather than weakness. In Nigerian politics, nobody invests heavily in undermining a candidate who poses no threat.

Conclusion: A Strategic Challenge for PDP

For the PDP, the concern surrounding Adelabu is strategic, not speculative. He nearly won in 2019 under extremely unfavourable conditions. He commands statewide recognition, carries respected political lineage, enjoys national-level endorsements, and combines technocratic expertise with grassroots appeal.

If the APC consolidates early, resolves internal frictions, and rallies behind him, the 2027 election could become one of the most consequential in Oyo’s recent history.

In that scenario, Adelabu will not be “just another aspirant.” He will be a tested contender —rooted in history, refined by administration, and connected to the people. And for the PDP, that reality remains what it has always been: uncomfortable, inconvenient, and difficult to ignore.

In short, whenever Adelabu’s name surfaces, panic follows. That, perhaps, is the most honest political endorsement of all.

Chief Gani Kayode Balogun GKB. An award winning public affairs analyst and the Osi Aare Ona Kakanfo of Yorubaland, writes from Ibadan