Anambra By-elections: The Morning After

IKE UME-ATUANA 

The by-election for the Anambra South senatorial Zone and Onitsha North Constituency 1 to fill the voids created by the deaths of Senator Ifeanyi Ubah and Hon Justice Azuka has come and gone, but not without some important lessons. One, the election exposed the soft underbelly of the opposition political parties in the state. Two it confirmed the ruling party – the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) as popular and dominant in the state.

Before this time, the opposition had boasted of mass appeal and electoral strength that would be deployed to run APGA out of the state. While some of them were confident of achieving this singular feat on some politicians’ coattails, the APC demonstrated its “capacity” through brazen striking to death of a live cock – the symbol of APGA – at Nteje. With the benefit of hindsight, all these have proved a sham and confirmed the statement repeated every so often by Governor Soludo that opposition parties do not exist in Anambra. Anybody who was in doubt before now, the August 16, 2025, by-election has removed all that.

The election did two things. It exposed the unpopularity of the opposition parties. It also uncovered their organizational weaknesses. It may be consoling for the opposition and their sympathizers to blame their loss on malpractice, but that was not true. They were beaten in their own game and if truth be told nobody can rig an election where they are not popular or are merely tolerated. Allegation of vote-buying and or financial inducement which has since been bandied around by the moping losers as responsible for the decisive defeat is to say the least cheap and an admission of failure. Though unfounded, elections are not fail-safe and cannot change overnight just because those who wished to win stood still while real winners worked their hearts out. The fact that many of the candidates lost in their very wards speaks of rejection that was deep. It was a clear case of lack of electoral value that does not promise better either now or in the future. The victory was simply an affirmation of support for APGA and a reconfirmation of the confidence reposed very early in the administration of Governor Chukwuma Soludo by ndi Anambra.

It should be understood that what happened during the by-election was not a fluke. It was as intentional as any election where a people consciously decide to discard emotions, spurn friendship and reject lucre to vote their conscience for their own good and the good of their state. In fact, the election was a reward for the manner in which Soludo and APGA have consistently moved higher the levers of development in the state.

But assuming without conceding that money played a role in the election, how did a governorship candidate who once boasted of riches and claimed he could pay the salaries of the Governor decided to sit by and watch his party lose? Besides the senatorial candidate in the election is not poor. But he has one affliction – ubiquity. He has been around too many times and has become a perennial fixture in all categories of elections in the state senate, governorship etc. His candidacy held no promise. Ditto for the Onitsha North Constituency 1 election. It followed a pattern consistent with how Onitsha people often voted. It is unsaid, but Onitsha North Constituency 1 is represented by either Onitsha son or daughter while Onitsha South Constituency 2 can be won by non-indigene. The only condition upon which APGA would have lost the election was on the principle of widow’s succession. As emotional as it was, it could not change the people’s tradition of voting their own.

It is clear the opposition has its head in the cloud and was not diligent enough to appreciate its strengths and weaknesses in the election. Anybody who is conversant with the political dynamics of Anambra knows that the opposition in not on ground in the state. It is important to note that apart from the fact that APGA has been around, Soludo achievements stand as a mirror before the voting public. It may be difficult for the electorates to experiment with any other party either now or on November 8 when the governor will be on the ballot.

APGA has become a party of choice in Anambra through conscious effort at statecraft by all its governments. It has special relationship with the electorates that it will take some beating. It has become so entrenched in the state that sheer braggadocio from the opposition can avail nothing. As a matter of fact, if empty promises and or boasts as were evident in this election cycle can threaten the dominance of APGA in the state, previous elections would have done it when opposition was stronger. But that was not the case because the Anambra electorates know what they want and do not subscribe to any form of gamble. They are smart enough to tell the parties apart.

It would have been a surprise had APGA lost the by-elections. The party has no reason to lose to any of the parties many of which have questionable provenance. Sweeping the 118 wards in the Anambra South Senatorial Zone and winning about 78% of the votes cast are indicative of what will happen in the entire state in November. It is not likely that a different result will be posted when the entire state goes to the polls. APGA is expected to win in all the 21 Local Government Areas of the state. In fact, it will be worse for the opposition in the Anambra Central Senatorial District which is already waiting anxiously for Soludo to conclude his good works in four year time. The Central Senatorial Zone will lead the re-election effort of Governor Soludo and will make sure the opposition is steamrollered. The by-election verdict is a precursor of what to expect in November, and it is advised that the opposition does not have great expectations because the Anambra electorate is quite discerning.

– Ume-Atuana, a commentator on National issues writes from Awka.