Can Tinubu Be Beaten In 2027?

In the past, Governors largely determined how their states voted during primaries and the General Election. This is because the governors controlled all the purse strings in their states. All Federal allocations to the state was paid through them.

Notice I used the word ‘controlled’, not control. Their control looks set to have ended.

You see, in July 2024, for the first time in Nigeria’s history, Local Governments started receiving their allocations directly from the Federation Account Allocation Committee due to the autonomy granted to Local Governments by the Supreme Court after the Tinubu administration initiated the case.

For almost a month since the Supreme Court granted Local Governments autonomy on Thursday, July 11, 2024, Governors and their surrogates have been complaining and grumbling. That is a loud message to the LGAs.

Former Presidential candidates have refused to endorse this win. Meaning that if they ascend to power, it is not known whether they will sustain it. Which is not a very wise thing. If I were in their shoes, I would have removed every ambiguity by stating that I supported and would sustain the autonomy. It is not too late.

This has led to a thinking throughout the 774 Local Governments across Nigeria that if Tinubu does not return in 2027, their newfound autonomy, and the cash it brings to the grassroots will go with it.

In essence, their survival is now tied to Tinubu’s political survival. They are now Siamese twins!

And what a lot of people do not understand is that all politics is local, and hate him or love him, Bola Tinubu understands that.

Therefore, there is a very strong vested interest throughout the Local Government cadre for Tinubu to return. And that is where the votes are.

Forget about these protests with their highfalutin names, such as Days of Rage and One Million Man March. They are just distractions.

As long as local governments get their allocations directly from the FAAC, no governor will be able to control them effectively. They will have independent thoughts.

And that is why you ought to respect the political sagacity of Bola Tinubu. He has perfected Habit Two of the Seven Habits of Highly Effective People: Begin with the end in mind.

His potential rivals in 2027, especially those in the Peoples Democratic Party, should reassure LGAs, if not Tinubu may coast easily to victory.

This Local Government autonomy was well thought out, which is probably why it was the President’s priority. In pure political calculation, it buys him the loyalty of 774 LGA Chairmen, who are the Goose that lays the Golden Egg.

And as long as LGA Chairmen continue to collect their allocations directly and Governors continue to grumble, the third tier of government will see Tinubu as a champion they cannot do without.

If you ask me if Tinubu can be defeated in 2027, I will say yes, but it will be a very difficult and uphill task. Why? Tinubu understands the game and plans for the future, whereas politicians like Peter Obi and others like him only react to circumstances.

I know they will come and insult me here. It is their nature. You cannot ask a scorpion not to sting. But can they fault my logic? Never, never, and again, never!

Reno Omokri

Gospeller. Deep Thinker. #TableShaker. Ruffler of the Feathers of Obidents. #1 Bestselling author of Facts Versus Fiction: The True Story of the Jonathan Years. Hodophile. Hollywood Magazine Humanitarian of the Year, 2019. Business Insider Influencer of the Year 2022.