Ogun Political Outlook Ahead Of 2027

Though who becomes the next Governor after Prince Dapo Abiodun in 2027 might be too early to say as of now. But that discourse is already gaining traction and momentum across the 3 senatorial districts in the state. All the senatorial districts have interested individuals. Yes, Ogun State political turf can be highly hellacious to predict, but the outlook as related to individual gladiators within the two major political parties of APC and PDP look straightforward as of now. 24 hours can be a long time in the chess game of politics. But currently in APC, it will be Senator Solomon Adeola Yayi and other teleguided or better still, gang up induced ambitions. Many will be in the race to muddle up the turf for sundry negotiations to achieve certain ends. But the summary of it all is that you are either for Yayi or be against him.

A similar scenario will be on display in PDP; it will be the game of Ladi Adebutu and others. However, it’s easy to forecast that PDP will eventually be home to renegades who will be seeing difficulties in Ladi Adebutu’s emergence and therefore, will be interested in slugging it out for the ticket of the party. How the raging battle for the control of the structure and the next Exco of the party pans out in the few weeks will go a long way in determining where the pendulum will swing within the party. However, it will be a herculean task to wrestle Lado to the floor for PDP’s ticket unless something extraordinarily happens. That’s how PDP is wired today in the state. Ultimately, Lado will always have a fairly good showing, particularly in Ogun East. Because of the goodness of Baba Kensington Adebutu to a good number of people over time, couple with his deep pocket will always count for something. But Ogun State is not just limited to Ogun East.

Beyond the ticket affairs, Ladi Adebutu’s Governorship interest in 2027 will not be helped by the simple fact of hailing from Iperu, the same town of “outgoing” governor Dapo Abiodun. The changing of Ladi Adebutu’s electoral base to Odogbolu can only do little to erase the fact of originality of his homestead as Iperu, where he has always aspired and contested from. Besides, Lado will not likely abandoned his abode in Iperu for anything beyond the political subterfuge. However, either Iperu or Odogbolu both still belongs to Ogun East Senatorial District. Thus, the ambition will be a hard sell, putting into consideration that in the history of Ogun State, never have we had a Senatorial District succeeding itself for the Governorship seat. The people of Ogun State are too politically conscious and sophisticated for this kind of imaginative fiefdom.

Paradoxically, while the ever social affectionado and governorship obsessed Ladi Adebutu will be angling to do a straight double of 8 years for Ogun East, Ogun West people are already waiting with bated breath for 2027. The waiting this time is with a difference. Ogun West of today is totally different from Ogun West of time past. The ascendancy of Senator Solomon Adeola Yayi has changed all permutations. The people of Ogun West now see the full arrival of Yayi as pivotal and focal point to break a seemingly jinx around the governorship seat. Despite the fierceness and multifaceted layers of opposition against Yayi that went beyond the shores Ogun West in 2023, he polled the highest number of votes in the history of Senatorial election in Ogun West (112,887). His popularity and mobilisation even helped other candidates in APC to win their own elections. Having been in the saddle, the popularity and acceptability of Yayi are not waning. It keeps soaring day after day across the 59 Wards of Ogun West and beyond. Many are now seeing Yayi, and rightly so, as the man with the widest political reach and network to consolidate the APC hold in the State at both Governorship and Presidential election level. Which people will not be happy and grateful to have a son who puts his talents and self at the behest of his race and country?

Senator Yayi’s representation in one year is already firmly rooted. It can only yield better fruits in the years ahead. Yayi, an Alumnus of “Bourdillion School of Politics and Governance”, comes with a lot of positivities as trainee under the leadership of Jagaban, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the President of Federal Republic of Nigeria. Ogun West is currently reaping part of the benefits of having an experienced legislator and a graduate from that “school”. The performance of Yayi has become a barometer of measuring the effectiveness or otherwise of elected political office holders in the State.

Presently, the outlook in APC as for who succeeds Governor Dapo Abiodun looks clearly flat and unsuggestive of anything concrete beyond guesswork and speculations as relates to the body language of the Governor. The Governor has been busy with governance without giving much away around the 2027 race. While Yayi too has been trying albeit unsuccessfully to reduce his visibility. His case can be liken to that of a golden fish that has no hidden place. Yayi is already in the hearts of many across the state. If it’s about “pay back time”, acceptability, and popularity among the people, then no one comes close to Yayi. The voice of the people is the voice of God (Vox populi Vox Dei). And going into the Governorship race, Yayi has all the advantages over all other likely contenders. He’s presently holding a very strategic and relevant political position. His influence, network, and impact can only be on the rise as the electioneering draws nearer. His competitors can’t just catch up within the allotted time. It looks to be Yayi’s time with all indices. Still, Yayi can’t afford to sit on his hands. A close attention must be paid to underground moves from Ogun Central, which will eventually manifest in due time. It’s not unlikely that most will run with the hare and hunt with the hounds from that axis though. But an average Ogun citizen believes that it is the right thing to do for an Ogun West person to emerge as Governor in 2027.

As an addendum, those who had governed Ogun State in the recent past and currently always have either a stint or imprimatur from Lagos. From Baba Osoba to OGD to Amosun and presently Prince Dapo Abiodun. Either structurally or economically as a melting pot for them or otherwise, Lagos has been a blessing to all. In that wise, Yayi’s coming can only consolidate on this historical fervency.

In all of these, one thing is clear, Governor Dapo Abiodun will not be eligible for 2027 race. More than that, the Governor himself has always attributed his emergence as Governor in 2019 to unseen hand from above. That story and what played out in 2019 still reverberate across the country today and very fresh in the mind of ever conscious people of Ogun State. Serious lessons to be learned from it. It therefore, behooves on the Governor Dapo Abiodun and Senator Yayi to work and collaborate together while not allowing divisive extraneous self interest of few to come into their midst. This is because any political equation without Yayi as a constant factor in Ogun APC today is clearly a recipe for something not palatable. It’s that straightforward. The outcome of that can better be imagined. The story of how PDP lost Ogun State in 2011 and has been in disarray since then should be enough guide. History will always be kind to Governor Dapo Abiodun as a man who will not succumb to overtures of those who will want him to play God. He will surely win legion of admirers in the process. May good reasoning prevail across board.