Not Yet Uhuru: APC Must Recalibrate Or Risk 2027

…The Arithmetic of Discontent: APC’s 2027 Reality Check

As clock ticks away, and the 2027 presidential poll draws closer, it would be politically myopic — if not perilously self-defeating — for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to dismiss the hard arithmetic of the 2023 electoral outcome as mere happenstance or rhetorical exaggeration. The figures, stark and unembellished, constitute a sobering dossier that demands urgent introspection. They are not the idle fabrications of dissenters, but empirical indicators of a party whose internal equilibrium, particularly its reward architecture for loyal adherents, appears increasingly tenuous. It would therefore be an exercise in dangerous self-delusion for our party, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to luxuriate in the illusion of electoral invincibility.

Consider, for instance, that the votes garnered by NNPP’s Sen. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso in Kano State alone — an imposing 997,279— surpassed the cumulative tally secured by the APC across no fewer than eleven states, including Taraba, Abia, Borno, Bayelsa, Gombe, Delta, Enugu, Yobe, Anambra, Ebonyi and Imo States. Such a statistical anomaly is not merely curious; it is symptomatic of a deeper electoral fragility. A political formation that prides itself on national spread must reckon with the disquieting reality that its influence, in several federating units, is either anaemic or altogether eclipsed. These empirical realities of the 2023 general elections — cold, unvarnished, and immune to partisan embellishment — thus present a cautionary tableau that ought to provoke urgent introspection within the party’s highest councils.

Further compounding this concern is the paradox of incumbency. Despite commanding the allegiance of 22 sitting governors at the time, the APC secured victory in only 12 states during the presidential poll, with a troubling 10 governors unable to translate executive dominance into electoral capital. Meanwhile, the combined opposition — spearheaded by PDP’s Atiku Abubakar, LP’s Peter Obi, and NNPP’s Kwankwaso — amassed a formidable 14,582,740 votes, representing approximately 64% of total ballots cast, while APC’s Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu secured 8,794,726 votes, or roughly 36%. Even more disquieting is the territorial spread. The APC triumphed in just 12 states, whereas the opposition carried 25 states alongside the FCT. These are not marginal discrepancies — they are tectonic indicators of a shifting political landscape.

Equally instructive is the electoral fate of political heavyweights. Of the 12 sitting governors who ventured into senatorial contests, a mere three emerged victorious, leaving nine to grapple with unexpected rejection at the polls. This underscores a growing disconnect between political officeholders and the electorate, as well as a waning capacity to command grassroots loyalty. Those figures such as Obi, Atiku, and Kwankwaso were able to mobilise millions of votes within a relatively short timeframe — often less than six months within their respective party platforms — further accentuates the volatility of the Nigerian electorate and the diminishing potency of entrenched political structures.

With the 2027 electoral cycle fast approaching, time remains a double-edged sword, sufficient for recalibration, yet equally ample for a resurgent opposition to consolidate and recalibrate its own machinery. Emerging alignments involving figures such as Atiku Abubakar, Rotimi Amaechi, Nasir El-Rufai, Abubakar Malami, Rauf Aregbesola, Kashim Imam, and other unnamed Progressives with soft spot (allegedly) for the opposition African Democratic Congress (ADC) such as Dr. John Kayode Fayemi, Sen. Ibikunle Amosun, and Nasir Yusuf Gawuna are not to be trivialised as routine political migrations; they portend the possibility of a formidable coalition capable of redrawing the electoral map.

The warning, therefore, is unequivocal. It is not yet uhuru. Electoral victory in 2027 is far from guaranteed for my party, the APC. A party that neglects the morale, expectations, and equitable reward of its teeming faithful courts not only internal disaffection but eventual electoral repudiation. The time has come for a thoroughgoing reassessment of its reward system — one that recognises loyalty, incentivises commitment, and restores confidence among its grassroots base. Anything short of this may render the party vulnerable to the very forces it currently underestimates.

Above is a stark admonition that without an urgent overhaul of its reward architecture and renewed commitment to its grassroots faithful, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) may find 2027 far less forgiving than anticipated. An evidence-based caution that the cold calculus of votes and voter sentiment underscores a growing disenchantment — one that the All Progressives Congress (APC) ignores at its own peril ahead of the next electoral contest.

In the final analysis, and further to post-National Convention, the path to political continuity lies not in complacency but in conscious recalibration. The All Progressives Congress (APC) must rediscover the ethos that once animated its rise — inclusivity, responsiveness, and a demonstrable commitment to those who labour in its vineyards. Absent such a course correction, the warning embedded in the numbers may well crystallise into an electoral verdict — one that no amount of post-facto rationalisation can reverse.

Àjọrò ló n jé Ìjerò o!

Omogbolahan L.A BABAWALE is the Convener/Lead Resource Person of The Think-Tinubu Initiative (3TI).
officialczar2@gmail.com