Analysts Warn of Economic Fallout From Network Downtime

Nigeria’s growing dependence on digital connectivity means prolonged telecommunications disruptions could affect businesses, jobs and household incomes, financial analysts have warned.

They said micro-enterprises, Point-of-Sale (POS) operators, remote workers and digital businesses now rely heavily on telecommunications infrastructure to conduct daily economic activities.

The analysts spoke during an economic dialogue hosted by financial planner Kalu Aja and chartered accountant Oluaseinde Olaseinde, founder of digital wealth platform Ladda.

According to data cited during the session, the telecommunications sector contributed 9.19 per cent to Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2026.

Olaseinde said reliable connectivity had allowed small businesses to operate without conventional offices, with some generating millions of naira monthly through digital platforms.

“Businesses can operate digitally. I see people making crazy revenue —I’m hearing companies doing ₦10 million per month, ₦50 million per month. They do not have a physical office. All they do is sit on social media, leveraging data to be connected and run businesses,” she said.

She said the impact of connectivity extended to financial technology, remote work and online education.

“Fintech transactions can actually happen. We have a business with over 75,000 users because people can download our app using data to save and invest. Remote workers can actually work. People are sitting in Lagos with clients in Nairobi, New York, London,” Olaseinde said.

She also cited online tutoring as another activity enabled by connectivity, saying tutors could teach students in different Nigerian cities and other countries.

Aja focused on the agency banking ecosystem, citing figures from Guaranty Trust Holding Company (GTCO), which he said processed ₦80.9 trillion through its HabariPay and Squad platforms in 2025.

He said the platforms were supported by more than 200,000 POS terminals.

“When you see a POS machine, that’s a person and a family with a job in Nigeria,” Aja said.

He said the scale of POS operations showed how corporate digital infrastructure could support livelihoods beyond the companies directly providing the services.

Aja also highlighted the scale of investment required to maintain telecommunications connectivity, putting MTN Nigeria’s cumulative capital expenditure at ₦1.62 trillion.

He said the investment covered fibre-optic backbones, base stations, spectrum and power generation, adding that the company had infrastructure or commercial presence across the country.

“In every local government area in Nigeria there is an MTN somewhere. You’ll either find a tower or you’re going to find someone selling recharge cards. That’s the depth and level of their contribution to Nigeria so far,” he disclosed.

The analysts also discussed the wider contribution of corporate investment to public infrastructure and government revenue.

Aja said Dangote Industries paid ₦900 billion in taxes and ₦753 billion in dividends in 2025, while MTN deployed tax credits towards construction of the Onitsha-Enugu Expressway under the Federal Government’s Road Infrastructure Tax Credit Scheme.

He said corporate payments also had implications for government revenue.

“Dangote made a statement: for every one naira Dangote Industries earns, 52 kobo goes to the government in taxes. If that all goes away, it’s a massive hole nobody can fill,” Aja pointed out.

The discussion also examined how corporate performance could translate into returns for retail investors.

Aja said GTCO returned ₦466 billion in dividends and paid ₦365 billion in taxes in 2025, while MTN Nigeria distributed ₦419.9 billion to shareholders and paid ₦429 billion in statutory taxes.

Olaseinde, who recalled participating in MTN’s 2019 initial public offering, said the investment had also provided returns to retail shareholders.

“The price was about ₦160 thereabouts. The last time I checked, it had kissed ₦800,” she said, adding that her dividend from the company had reached ₦1.2 million during the period under review.

“Knowing that my money can work for me while I sleep—I’m not just consuming. I’m also part owner,” she emphasized.

The analysts further stressed the importance of long-term investment in maintaining economic infrastructure.

“FPI (Foreign Portfolio Investment) is like a one-night stand. FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) is like a marriage,” Olaseinde analysed arguing that companies making long-term investments create jobs and maintain a sustained presence in the economy.

Aja stated disruptions to infrastructure supporting digital businesses could therefore have consequences beyond telecommunications.

“Without these investments, the jobs go, the 52 kobo tax revenues go, and the digital economy that keeps millions off the street goes dark,” he asserted.