Next Generation, Not Election
BY LANRE ISSA-ONILU
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu asked a critical question at a parley with members of the Nigerian community in China: “But can we help it?” In other words, can we not make these tough decisions to save our country from economic collapse? Could we have sustained the petrol subsidy to ensure much lower pump prices? Could we have continued to defend the naira with dollars to keep the official and black-market exchange rate disparity? It was a rhetorical question as well as a matter of fact.
The President told the audience: “Nigeria is going through reforms, and we are taking bold and unprecedented decisions. For example, you might have been hearing from home in the last few days about fuel prices. But can we help it? Can we develop good roads like you have here? You see electricity being constant in quantity and quality. You see water supply, constant and running, and you see their good schools. And we say we want to hand over a banner without stain to our children?”
As of May 2023, Nigeria was on the brink. The foreign reserve propelled the naira, struggling against market forces due to our minimal production. Much of Nigeria’s crude oil had been sold for crucial revenue, leaving us little to sell. We used 97% of our annual income to service debt, with nothing left for recurrent and capital costs. Nigeria was living on borrowed time.
The outgoing government of President Muhammadu Buhari understood that subsidies had to go. It made subsidy provisions in the budget until May 30, the morning after its departure. So, the new administration had nothing to support subsidies. So, we return to the President’s question, “But can we help it?
For decades, successive governments nurtured Nigeria’s dwindling fortune like a sore thump that the physician wouldn’t cure because the patient would feel the pain. So, we have been window-dressing the country’s economic wound even as it continued to fester.
President Tinubu’s approach starkly contrasts the short-term focus often seen in Nigerian politics. Instead of making decisions for immediate gains, he is considering the long-term impact of today’s actions. This strategic thinking is crucial for sustainably shaping the country’s future. In a country where the focus is often on the next election, President Tinubu opted instead to focus on the next generation.
President Tinubu’s leadership is marked by courage and vision. He is unafraid to make tough decisions, even if they temporarily cause the public to complain. It’s essential to recognise that these bold decisions were necessary to steer Nigeria from a path of decline towards growth and development.
To those who understand Nigeria’s limited choices, President Tinubu is God-sent. It is better to imagine where Nigeria could be should we continue to paper over our economic woes.
Positive signs are emerging in just over one year. The economy is growing and expanding. In the second quarter of 2024, Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.2%, higher than the 2.51% recorded in the second quarter of 2023 and the 2.98% growth in the first quarter of 2024. This growth was driven by the service sector, which recorded an increase of 3.79% and contributed 58.76% to the aggregate output. The revenue-debt servicing ratio has dropped from 97% to 68%. That looks dramatic.
Recent economic reforms and monetary policy adjustments have positively influenced Nigeria’s dollar bond performance. The country’s economic reforms have restored investor confidence, including floating the naira and clearing foreign exchange backlogs. As a result, Nigeria’s dollar bonds have seen improved performance, attracted portfolio investors and enhanced the country’s bankability.
This renewed confidence is reflected in the increased foreign currency inflows and the stabilisation of the naira, which have contributed to a more favourable investment climate for Nigeria’s dollar bonds.
Ordinary citizens take time to feel the impact of economic growth, which is why the government is intensifying palliative measures. Beyond palliatives, there are fundamental social investment policies that are already providing much-needed relief. The student loan policy has undoubtedly impacted thousands of Nigerians. The parents, students, schools, and the government have scored a bullseye with this win-win policy. The consumer credit scheme is being readied. It will be no less impactful, ultimately lifting a considerable burden of out-of-pocket costs from the citizens.
There is no denying the hardship Nigerians are currently going through. One thing is sure: the end will justify the pains. President Tinubu is well-suited and practised for the job. Lagos is a reference that cannot go out of vogue. The first two years of his administration as Governor of Lagos State witnessed teeth gnashing, but Lagosians have been smiling ever since. President Tinubu is one person to trust to fix Nigeria. No one else can do it than the man whose concern is the next generation instead of the next election.
Issa-Onilu is the Director General of the National Orientation Agency
