2023: Will Osinbajo’s Riding Ahead Of Others Benefit The APC?

ADAMU SHEU SANNI

I am not a member of any political party nor a paid apologist for any politician, but I consider myself a Nigerian that must at every time contribute his quota by querying the goings on and shaping what is considered best for my beloved country. 

I am writing and directing this opinion at the members of the APC, its political leaders, governors, House of Representatives’ members and senators on its platform; hoping that they’ll think about Nigeria and not themselves at the upcoming elections, starting with the primaries.

In my next write up, I will be addressing the populous Nigerian youth, with my focus on the constituency in their early 30s; those who haven’t seen anything inspiring about Nigeria in the most part of their years but some array of hope that came from President Muhammadu Buhari government’s embrace of MSMEs. I do hope it will be sustained. 

As the race towards the APC Presidential ticket heats up and all the aspirants are consulting far and wide, it appears that the Vice President Prof Yemi Osinbajo is taking the lead, way ahead of other aspirants. 

His recent visits to the paramount rulers of Egbaland, HRM Oba Adedotun Aremu Gbadebo III and Benin Kingdom, HRM Oba Eheneden Erediauwa (Ewuare II) speak volumes; going by their statements and the pledges of allegiance. Anyone who understands politics knows that the palaces are key influence points. As it stands, Osinbajo is winning with the royals. 

From all indications, the southern part of Nigeria is the battle ground. This is based on the ‘silent’ zoning and of course, because majority of the aspirants in the APC are from this region. It will be very interesting to see how the players will shape the narrative and win the delegates over, especially if the influence wielded by some governors during the party’s national convention was anything to go by. It was also very obvious that the chairman of the governor’s forum might be declaring his interest to run for the office, any moment soon. 

A critical and dispassionate review of the goings on might signal the likelihood of a two-horse race eventually: the godfather himself, Alhaji Bola Ahmed Tinubu vs the Vice President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo. This assumption rests on whoever the ruling party considers as the most sellable candidate, capable of winning the elections. From our political history, the North West and South West are the largest voting blocs. This is very evident from APC’s victory in the last two elections (2015 and 2019), which came majorly through the aforementioned regions.

Being non-partisan and not any of the die-hards for either Osinbajo or Tinubu, I can predict that the odds are going to favour Osinbajo, before Tinubu, Amaechi or Fayemi. Obviously, Osinbajo will leverage his current position and the fact that he is a Christian from the South West. Noteworthy is the fact that APC must ensure that it doesn’t end up with a Muslim -Muslim ticket which is an albatross in the Tinubu equation. Now, this is not to downplay the latter’s viability as a political titan; one capable of galvanizing votes across the ethnic divides, however, the bigger challenge will be to surmount the Nigerian sensitivity along the religious divide.  

To buttress this, let’s cast our minds back to 2014, when the idea of a Muslim – Muslim ticket created problems for the party. As at that time, the party had touted Tinubu as a potential running mate for the current President who was APC’s presidential flag bearer. However, records made available at different times, including that written by the elder statesman, Chief Bisi Akande, revealed that the consideration for a Christian running mate paved way for the emergence of Prof Yemi Osinbajo.

Furthermore, President Muhammadu Buhari then had a solid card on APC’s ballot with assured votes in excess of ten million but needed a Christian running mate from the South West to guarantee victory in the presidential elections in terms of total votes cast and spread. It would have been a challenge to deliver the southern votes with a Muslim-Muslim ticket, and this would have made then President Goodluck Jonathan’s probability of wining very high. 

That same situation is about to present itself and perhaps the reason most of the intra – party alignments are in favour of the serving Vice President. Noteworthy is the fact that he had demonstrated loyalty to the President in the last seven years, asides being a southern Christian.

Presently, the APC needs to figure out how to transit from President Buhari to another APC president in 2023, since the incumbent is not on the ballot and the party does not have Buhari’s assured votes in excess of ten million. This is one big question that the governors as state party leaders need to answer, particularly because they bear the soul of the party in their hands. Someone might ask, why would the governors be held accountable for this success or failure? The next paragraphs will attempt to answer this position.  

APC as a political party adopting indirect primaries such that the delegates determining who emerge as the flag bearer at the different electoral levels. According to its constitution, these delegates are either statutory or elected. Where the delegates are statutory, they are going to be led (sponsored to the primaries) by the state’s party leaders (governors) which means that they will most likely dance to the tune of the pipers. 

There’s no gainsaying in the fact that the governors as leaders of the party in their respective states would appoint delegates who would be favourably disposed to their personal agenda/interests. Meanwhile, the interest of these governors would have been significantly toned down if majority of the APC governors were returning for a second term. But, this is not the case. Unlike 2019, most of them are on their way out and already scheming to get senatorial seats or otherwise. They want to retain their fingers in the national pie at all costs and this might not be in the interest of the generality of the people.

As it stands, the fate of the ruling party is in the hands of a minority and the hope that their political aspirations will supersede their personal benefits, for corporate good. Unfortunately, this can only be hoped for, because politics in itself is about interests and these interests are a product of subjective judgements. Every time a decision needs to be made, it is a war, literally. Since what will favour the masses is usually never what works for the selected, albeit minimal group of elites. 

Putting it mildly is to say that the APC not choosing Osinbajo, is APC getting ready to be defeated at the 2023 polls, and predictably so, by the PDP. The latter must be prepared to swallow the bitter pill of losing and bow to the wolves of the opposition. All political gladiators, driven by self – interests, must keep this reality in mind.

This is the voice of a silent but passionate observer of the APC and one that believes in the party’s capability to steer our nation’s ship in the right direction. The next phase of this herculean task begins with the APC’s presidential primaries.

My name is Adamu Sheu Sanni.