Edo Guber: Popularity Vs Political Reality In Nigeria

ULOKA CHIBUIKE 

Now, for the umpteenth time, Peter Obi’s influence is only significant when he’s personally on the ballot. Anything outside of this is an exercise in futility, as the Edo election once again proves.

There is no such thing as the Labour Party in Nigeria in any meaningful sense; it simply doesn’t exist as a significant political force. Nigeria is essentially a two-party state, leaving little room for a third party. Give it to Peter Obi, he has remained a great image maker for himself through modest appearances and sound bites that address the core issues facing the country today. He has captured the attention of Gen Z and some millennials, many of whom were previously uninterested in Nigerian politics and voting. These younger supporters have, in turn, influenced their parents and peers with Obi’s message of hope that Nigeria can work again despite the current challenges we all face. This is something you cannot take away from him. However, the idea that he can transfer this support to another candidate is unrealistic. His supporters are loyal to him and him alone.

Time and again, people have tried to ride the wave of Obi’s popularity and acceptance among young people to win off-cycle elections when he is not on the ballot, (either running for President or Vice President) they have all failed. Few examples are: Oseloka Obaze in 2017, Val Ozigbo in 2021, Bayelsa and Edo in 2023 and 2024 respectively. Anambra in 2025 will likely be no different if nothing new is introduced and common sense fails to prevail.

The Labour Party is only in the business of dividing and distracting opposition votes, and it is unlikely to win any election during off-cycles, even as the sole contestant.

The poor performance of Olumide Akpata, the Labour Party’s gubernatorial candidate in the Edo election, has reinforced the notion that the Labour Party—or any party other than the APC and PDP—is merely an orphan with distant admirers. This perhaps excludes APGA in Anambra, which has continued to use zoning arrangements and Dim Odumegwu Ojukwu to its advantage; whether this sustains depends heavily on what the opposition can do differently in the next Gubernatorial elections.

It is a fact that many Nigerians believe Peter Obi is highly qualified to be the President of Nigeria. While this may be true to some extent, he must take into account the unique dynamics and complexities of Nigerian politics. If Peter Obi runs again on the Labour Party platform against the PDP and APC, call it rigged or anything else, he will come third again, the opposition votes will continue to suffer and misfits will again sneak into the parliament. Admirers and individual supporters alone cannot win any significant election; there is more to winning than being popular among a specific demographic. You can choose to be emotional about it, but that won’t change the outcome.

Obi has worked hard to achieve the popularity he enjoys today; he must not end up a brilliant footballer who fails to win a trophy at the peak of his career. It’s now or never!

©Uloka Chibuike