South Is APC’s Voting Powerhouse In Kwara State; Tinubu Must Reject Central Elites’ Crass Logic

 

Since news filtered in via the DG of NOA, Lanre Isa Onilu, that President Bola Tinubu has endorsed Bashir Omolaja Bolarinwa (BOB) as the APC consensus candidate for the Kwara State gubernatorial election, some disgruntled APC leaders from Central have discredited his choice with the argument that the party will lose with a candidate from the South. Olukayode Thomas not only debunks these claims but also proposes alternatives for the South and North should the APC decide to pick a candidate from Central to succeed Abdulrahman Abdulrasak, who is from the same zone.

 

Introduction

 

It is the season of political correctness, when the majority of Kwarans abhor speaking truth to power because of stomach infrastructure and other crass reasons.

 

The following men and woman of honour — Issa Ezekiel Benjamin, a former Speaker of the Kwara House of Assembly (1999–2003); Adetiba-Olanrewaju Raphael Olalekan, a former Deputy Speaker; Mary Ebun Oyeleye, an APC elder; and Ladi Mustapha, a former APC State Legal Adviser — deserve flowers from Kwarans who cherish equity, fairness, and justice for the rare courage they have shown in speaking the truth at a time when being deceptive is lucrative and rewarding.

 

In an open letter to President Bola Tinubu published recently in a national newspaper, Benjamin and his colleagues not only exposed what they described as the falsehood that Kwara South is a political liability to the APC, but they also debunked the claims making the rounds that Kwara Central is the voting powerhouse of the APC in the state.

 

Deploying verifiable figures and data, they argued that Kwara South has been the strongest pillar of APC victories in Kwara State since 2015.

 

Figures don’t lie, Kwara South leads

 

Figures released by Benjamin and his colleagues, which have not been challenged by anyone in Kwara and beyond since being published in The Nation Newspapers of 5 May 2026, revealed that from 2015 through 2019 and 2023, Kwara South has been the most consistent driver of APC victories in Kwara State.

 

Kwara South Senatorial District has returned between 68 per cent and 70 per cent of the vote in each electoral cycle and provided the largest zonal margin in 2023. The zone also supplies the buffer that keeps APC above 60 per cent statewide.

 

According to the statistics, in 2015 APC won Kwara North with 94,200 votes (68.9 per cent of 136,700 valid votes cast), Kwara South with 96,800 votes (70.1 per cent of 138,100), and Kwara Central with 98,400 votes (71.2 per cent of 138,200).

 

In 2019, APC won Kwara North with 91,600 votes (66.2 per cent of 138,400), Kwara South with 93,500 votes (68.7 per cent of 136,100), and Kwara Central with 92,100 votes (66.8 per cent of 137,900).

 

In 2023, APC won Kwara North with 89,400 votes, or 62.1 per cent of the 143,900 valid votes cast; Kwara South with 98,700 votes, or 68.5 per cent of the 144,100 valid votes cast; and Kwara Central with 75,500 votes, representing 54.3 per cent of the 139,000 valid votes cast.

 

Benjamin and his colleagues posited that, based on these figures, the party’s 2027 strategy ought to follow the zonal data.

 

“And the data trend is clear: Kwara South has been the most stable, returning between 68% and 70% for APC across all three electoral cycles. But while the North drifted down gradually from 69% in 2015 to 62% in 2023, Kwara Central fell sharply from 71% in 2015 to 54% in 2023.”

 

Continuing, they revealed that, “South provided a 37-point margin over the opposition [the margin is the difference between APC’s 68.5% and the opposition’s combined 31.5%]. Without the buffer provided by Kwara South, the APC statewide vote in 2023 would have dropped from 61.7% to 58.3%.”

 

Kwara South is the home of progressives

 

Benjamin and his colleagues also revealed that in Offa, Ekiti, Irepodun, Oyun, Isin, Oke Ero, and Ifelodun, APC structures have remained stable since the ACN days.

 

“Our internal analysis indicates that when candidates with recognised ties to those structures are on the ballot, turnout in the zone rises by 7–12% compared to cycles where they are absent. That is a replicable turnout lever.”

 

They also argued that South-origin residents in Kwara Central form a significant swing voting bloc.

 

“Central holds the largest population in the state, and it also concentrates a large number of voters with origins in Kwara South. These are essentially civil servants, educationists, entrepreneurs, and students. They register and vote in Central, but their electoral behaviour has historically tracked with the South’s pattern.

 

“What matters is whether the ticket gives them a reason to turn out. A campaign that coordinates the three zones as one arithmetic exercise produces a stable outcome: South holds and grows, North closes the gaps, while Central is buffered by its South-origin voters.”

 

Elders, like Tinubu, back BOB for 2027

 

For the 2027 election, Benjamin and his colleagues posited that the implication is straightforward.

 

“If Kwara South grows its 68.5% share, Central recovers from the incursion of opposition elements using its South-origin networks, and North matches its 2019 massive turnout, APC can hit about 62% statewide.

 

“In a state where presidential elections are often decided by margins, netting higher votes will remove Kwara from the list of states to be rescued on election day.”

 

They also argued that Kwara South’s value lies in its consistent turnout, ward structures, and the fact that a significant share of its people now register and vote in Central.

 

They unanimously recommended that a grassroots candidate with ward-level recognition and administrative experience across local government and the House of Representatives, like Bolarinwa, is best placed to activate these networks.

 

Kwara APC, they believe, needs Bolarinwa — a candidate with an unimpeachable administrative and legislative record — to mobilise those levers without resorting to zero-sum politics.

 

“A ticket anchored on Bolarinwa’s enviable profile can hold South’s base, reactivate South-origin voters in Central, and give North the coordination it needs to close the gap.”

 

The experienced politicians see Kwara South as the state’s anchor zone, potent and ready to once again deliver victory to the APC in 2027 when one of its own is on the ballot.

 

“On that basis, we strongly recommend the Kwara South aspirant, Bolarinwa, who piloted the O’to Ge Movement as APC Chairman and can deliver a statewide result for the APC in both the presidential and gubernatorial contests in 2027. We appeal to the President and the party to align with the data rather than the noise.”

 

Aspirants from Kwara Central are not men of good conscience

 

Kwara State prides itself as the State of Harmony, but its politicians, especially those from Kwara Central, do not place much premium on harmonious relationships.

 

Either through proxies or directly, the Kwara Central Senatorial District has ruled the state since the return to democracy in 1999.

 

The outgoing governor, Abdulrasak, is also from Kwara Central.

 

If governorship aspirants from Kwara Central, such as Saliu Mustapha, Ibrahim Oloriegbe, Yahaya Seriki, and others, are men of good conscience, they would not contest the APC governorship ticket against aspirants from Kwara South or Kwara North; they would simply back the party’s choice from those zones.

 

But they are not only contesting, but they have also allegedly gone to town with claims that the only way APC can win the governorship election in Kwara State is to field a candidate from Kwara Central.

 

Buoyed and blinded by their inordinate ambitions, they have resorted to dirty politics in a bid to grab power and sustain their hegemony.

 

Instead of showing concern about the security situation in Kwara South and North, there are insinuations that they are using it to score political points.

 

They are claiming that insecurity has left Kwara South and North deserted and that there are no voters in the zones.

 

How can governorship aspirants and their supporters be so insensitive as to use the plight of the people they intend to rule over as a campaign tool?

 

Knowing fully well that the plight of the people in Kwara North and South is caused by the irresponsibility and ineptitude of political leaders from Kwara State, especially their kinsman, who is the governor.

 

They probably thought every Kwaran was brain-dead like them, but we are not. The majority of us are cerebral, and their insensitivity has raised troubling questions.

 

Could it be that they or their followers are behind the insecurity with the intention of using it as a tool to campaign against a Kwara South or North candidate? Why mock us with our plight?

 

Don’t they know that APC picking a candidate from the insecurity-ravaged zones will give the indigenes the motivation to come out and vote en masse, believing that having their son or daughter as governor will solve the insecurity problem that an incompetent governor from Central has failed to solve?

 

If insecurity has not stopped voters from participating in elections in states like Borno, Yobe, Zamfara, Benue, and other states, why would it stop voters in Kwara South and North?

 

The five South-East states have battled kidnapping, banditry, and other forms of violence for over a decade, yet it did not stop voter turnout for Peter Obi in the 2023 election.

 

The truth is that a Kwara South or North candidate will give people from the troubled region a sense of belonging, while a Kwara Central candidate could trigger apathy or protest votes.

 

Labour Party/Accord Party as alternatives

 

Since most of the prominent PDP aspirants are also from Kwara Central, if by act of commission or omission, APC gives its ticket to an aspirant from Central, elders from the South and North must urgently look for a credible candidate who will fly their flag in either the Labour Party or the Accord Party.

 

With a governorship aspirant from the South and a deputy from the North, they believe the platform can be used to realise the ambition of producing their own governor rather than accepting what they describe as a circumstantial stooge handed to them by Central for political correctness.

 

Unless circumstances dictated otherwise, they argued, Kwara South and North have rarely produced governors of their choice.

 

In 1983, our fathers wanted Josiah Sunday Olawoyin, the late Asiwaju of Offa, but the elites who considered him too radical and pro-people worked against him.

They settled for a Cornelius Adebayo, not because they wanted him too, but because Baba Sola Saraki fell out with Governor Adamu Atta, the governor then.

 

Shaaba Lafiagi became governor because Baba Saraki also wanted him to be governor, while Abdulfatah Ahmed governed from 2011 to 2019 because Bukola Saraki backed him.

 

Abdulrasak, they argued, would have secured a third term under the guise of the Kwara North Agenda through Yakubu Danladi, Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly, but for public resistance.

 

While they pledged their support for President Tinubu and APC in the January 2027 presidential election, they may vote for their preferred governorship candidate on another platform during the February 2027 governorship and House of Assembly elections if APC picks a candidate from Central.

We must conquer fear and unite

The greatest obstacle to achieving the above, which will end Kwara Central hegemony, is not a lack of human and material resources but fear and lack of unity among us.

The King of Music, Fela Aníkúlápó Kuti, obviously hadthe people of Kwara South and North in mind when he sang his epic Sorrow, Tears and Blood in 1977.

Extract from the lyrics goes thus: ‘’My people self dey fear too much, We fear for the thing we no see, We fear for the air around us, We fear to fight for freedom, We fear to fight for liberty, We fear to fight for justice, We fear to fight for happiness.’’

Since the exit of Josiah Olawoyin, Kwara South and by extension the North, are lacking in courageous leaders.

In a state where the people of Kwara South and North are a clear majority, they continue to play second fiddle because many of today’s leaders are scared, and they are not united.

With seven local government areas in Kwara South, and people of Kwara South origin dominating Asa, Ilorin East and Ilorin South, Moro, and even Ilorin West, where we have 6,019 compounds, compared to Fulani /Hausa 92 compounds.

We have 114 Obas who wear beads and crowns. If we work with the Nupe, Baruba and Etsu, we have what it takes to wrestle power from the Central instead of waiting for circumstances to throw one of us up.

We also have the human and material resources; what we need is to conquer fear and unite. History will not forgive the present leaders from Kwara South and North if we let the 2027 opportunity slip.

History belongs to the brave. The time to free Kwara North and South from second slavery is now.

We must seize the opportunity presented by Tinubu, a democrat who supports free and fair elections, and change our story.

While lovers of freedom in Kwara State thank Benjamin and his colleagues for ending decades of lies about the voting strength of the three senatorial zones in Kwara, they still can’t rest on their laurels.

They have another assignment. They need to start mobilising leaders from Kwara South and North, and men of good conscience from Kwara Central at home and in the diaspora ensure that power moves from Central to South or North.

Let our leaders lead the charge; we, the foot soldiers, are ready. Let’s do O to Ge for Kwara Central elites whose power grab policy has not even benefitted it people, much less Kwara State.

Olukayode Thomas, an indigene of Offa, is based in Lagos