Vladimir Putin: When Common Sense Is Not Common

Fastforward to February 24, 2022, Russia, led by the inimitable Vladimir Putin, invaded Ukraine. In the main, the invasion was triggered by Kremlin’s aversion to Kyiv aligning with NATO, and the US, by default and have the latter’s eyes planted right over the Kremlin from across its border. Arguably, its similarity with the Cuban scenario must have pushed Putin into adopting the Bay of Pig option by invading Ukraine.

Ordinarily, there would appear to be a justification of some sort particularly as Russia would want its arch enemy breathing down its neck across its border. The only snag, a major one at that, is that there is no right way of doing anything that is wrong.

While at it, Putin refused to acknowledge the invasion for what it is-war. Instead, he christened a Special Operation which he concluded would last only a few weeks. As far as he is concerned, the Russian army would, within the period, ride rough shod over Ukraine and force it to surrender to the Russian army haplesslly. However, more than a year later, despite its technological and numerical advantages with the support of of Putin’s groomed private military (the Wagner mercinary) group, the Special Ops has not only extended beyond one year, it has said to have taken a huge toll on the Russian army. Worse still, the invasion took backward glances recently, perhaps by default, when reprisal attacks took place inside mainland Moscow, hitherto unheard of.

Overall, the question being asked is whether Putin acted with the benefit of common sense, before invading Ukraine and in declaring that Russia will be done with the war in a few weeks.

One of America’s Politzer Award-winning writers and political commentator, Walter Lippmann, wrote that the genius of a good leader is to leave behind a situation which common sense, without the grace of genius, can deal with successfully. He probably had no Vladimir Putin in mind when he penned the time-tested axiom. But today, his words resonate whenever Putin’s logic for invading Ukraine is analyzed within the common sense context. As it were, it appears difficult to say that the Russian leader’s appreciation of common sense has any bearing on what the phrase means.

Right now, there is no sign that the miscalculated Special Ops is about to end any time soon. Common sense does not seem to suggest that. Clearly, if he was well guided, he would have been more circumspect in his claims which also include his threat to feed any nation that aided Kyiv with the Moscow pill. As if that was not enough, he also threatened to unleash the nuclear weapon, a threat his predecessor, Dmitry Medvedev, has had to advertise, unfortunately. Indeed, the threats make one wonder if Putin has his wits about him.

Putin cannot be unmindful of the fact that the possession of nuclear capability is not an exclusive preserve of Russia. Many other countries, including those he referred to in his threat, also have their arsenal.

More than that, Putin must be aware that firing a nuclear warhead would tee off what is referred to as Mutually Assured Destruction, MAD, as others would, most probably, respond in kind. By now he must be aware that his threat is like that of a man pulling his gun against several other men whose fingers are already on the trigger. The consequences are better magined.

In reality, being the first to fire a nuclear weapon does not eliminate the right of others to respond in kind. Imagine three nuclear capable countries responding to Moscow’s misguided action if it ever happens. The consequences are too obvious if guided by common sense.

Meanwhile, several countries are not only supporting Ukraine with arms, ammunitions and funds to prosecute the war against Russia, they are letting Putin know that they are doing so with open declarations. They are, almost openly, also justifying attacks on Moscow, insisting Kyiv reserves the right to defend itself by any means. The US, Germany, France, to mention but a few, are such examples. NATO is even more blatant about it. Can Russia reasonably act on its threat without any recourse to the consequences?

Obviously, the case with Putin is as the French writer, philosopher and historian, Francois-Marie Arouet, better known as Voltaire, captured it; common sense is not common. If it were, Putin should have realized that one does not use a mallet against a tsetse-fly perched on one’s scrotum. The time has come for him to tactically end the war before it spirals out of control. The Hitler event is enough common sense example.